Diabetes‎, ‎Hypertension‎, ‎Obesity‎, ‎and Age as Predictors of Severe COVID-19‎: ‎A Mathematical Modeling Study

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Esfarayen University of Technology

2 Department of Biostatistics‎, ‎School of Health‎, ‎Mashhad University of Medical Sciences‎, ‎Mashhad‎, ‎Iran.‎

3 Department of Statistics‎, ‎Faculty of Medicine‎, ‎Mashhad University of Medical Sciences‎, ‎Mashhad‎, ‎Iran.‎

10.22038/jctm.2026.95622.1529

Abstract

Objective: To analyze an epidemiological model of COVID-19 transmission and identify patient characteristics associated with disease severity‎.

‎Materials and Methods: An extended SIR-based compartmental model was developed‎, ‎incorporating asymptomatic/symptomatic classes‎, ‎hospitalization‎, ‎ICU admission‎, ‎mortality‎, ‎reinfection‎, ‎and environmental transmission‎. ‎The basic reproduction number R_0) was derived‎, ‎and stability analysis was performed using Routh-Hurwitz and Castillo-Chavez criteria‎. ‎Numerical simulations were conducted in MATLAB using data from Mashhad University of Medical Sciences.

Results: The disease-free equilibrium is stable when R_0<1‎. ‎Clinical findings show‎: ‎diabetic patients are twice as likely to develop severe symptoms; hypertensive patients have a 3.5-fold higher risk (20% mortality vs‎. ‎0.7%); men have seven-fold higher mortality than women; older adults (>40 years) show increased severity; and obese patients (BMI \geq30) have worse outcomes‎.

Conclusion: R_0 is a critical parameter for disease-free equilibrium stability. ‎Comorbidities (diabetes‎, ‎hypertension‎, ‎obesity) and demographic factors (older age‎, ‎male gender) significantly increase the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes‎.

Keywords

Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Medicine

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 June 2026

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