<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
			<journal>
			<title>Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Medicine</title>
			<title_fa></title_fa>
			<short_title></short_title>
			<subject>Medical Sciences</subject>
			<web_url>https://jctm.mums.ac.ir/</web_url>
			<journal_hbi_system_id>0</journal_hbi_system_id>
			<journal_hbi_system_user></journal_hbi_system_user>
			<journal_id_issn>2345-2447</journal_id_issn>
			<journal_id_issn_online>2322-5750</journal_id_issn_online>
			<journal_id_pii></journal_id_pii>
			<journal_id_doi></journal_id_doi>
			<journal_id_iranmedex></journal_id_iranmedex>
			<journal_id_magiran></journal_id_magiran>
			<journal_id_sid></journal_id_sid>
			<journal_id_nlai></journal_id_nlai>
			<journal_id_science></journal_id_science>
			<language>en</language>
			<pubdate>
				<type>jalali</type>
				<year>0</year>
				<month>0</month>
				<day>1</day>
			</pubdate>
			<pubdate>
				<type>gregorian</type>
				<year>2026</year>
				<month>6</month>
				<day>1</day>
			</pubdate>
			<volume>14</volume>
			<number>2</number>
			<publish_type>online</publish_type>
			<publish_edition>1</publish_edition>
			<article_type>fulltext</article_type>
			<articleset><article>
				<language>en</language>
				<article_id_issn></article_id_issn>
				<article_id_issn_online></article_id_issn_online>
				<article_id_pubmed></article_id_pubmed>
				<article_id_pii></article_id_pii>
				<article_id_doi></article_id_doi>
				<article_id_iranmedex></article_id_iranmedex>
				<article_id_magiran></article_id_magiran>
				<article_id_sid></article_id_sid>
				<title_fa></title_fa>
				<title>Diabetes‎, ‎Hypertension‎, ‎Obesity‎, ‎and Age as Predictors of Severe COVID-19‎: ‎A Mathematical Modeling Study</title>
				<subject_fa></subject_fa>
				<subject></subject>
				<content_type_fa></content_type_fa>
				<content_type>Original Article</content_type>
				<abstract_fa><![CDATA[]]></abstract_fa>
				<abstract><![CDATA[Objective: To analyze an epidemiological model of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and identify patient characteristics associated with disease severity‎.‎Materials and Methods: An extended SIR-based compartmental model was developed‎, ‎incorporating asymptomatic/symptomatic classes‎, ‎hospitalization‎, ‎ intensive care unit (ICU) admission‎, ‎mortality‎, ‎reinfection‎, ‎and environmental transmission‎. ‎The basic reproduction number ‎ ) was derived‎, ‎and stability analysis was performed using Routh-Hurwitz and Castillo-Chavez criteria‎. ‎Numerical simulations were conducted using MATLAB with data from Mashhad University of Medical Sciences‎.Results: The disease-free equilibrium is stable when ‎ &lt;1‎. ‎Clinical findings show‎: ‎diabetic patients are twice as likely to develop severe symptoms; hypertensive patients have a 3.5-fold higher risk (20% mortality vs‎. ‎0.7%); men have seven-fold higher mortality than women; older adults (&gt;40 years) show increased severity; and obese patients (BMI ≥30) have worse outcomes‎.Conclusion: is a critical parameter for disease-free equilibrium stability‎. ‎Comorbidities (diabetes‎, ‎hypertension‎, ‎obesity) and demographic factors (older age‎, ‎male gender) significantly increase the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes‎.]]></abstract>
				<keyword_fa></keyword_fa>
				<keyword>COVID-19, Diabetes, Hypertension, mathematical modeling, stability analysis</keyword>
				<start_page>1709</start_page>
				<end_page>1723</end_page>
				<web_url>https://jctm.mums.ac.ir/article_27854.html</web_url>
			<author_list><author>
				<first_name>Atena</first_name>
				<middle_name></middle_name>
				<last_name>Ghasemabadi</last_name>
				<suffix></suffix>
				<first_name_fa></first_name_fa>
				<middle_name_fa></middle_name_fa>
				<last_name_fa></last_name_fa>
				<suffix_fa></suffix_fa>
				<email>ghasemabadi@esfarayen.ac.ir</email>
				<code>122461</code>
				<coreauthor>Yes</coreauthor>
				<affiliation>Esfarayen University of Technology, Esfarayen, North Khorasan, Iran.</affiliation>
				<affiliation_fa></affiliation_fa>
				 </author><author>
				<first_name>Somayeh</first_name>
				<middle_name></middle_name>
				<last_name>Ghiasi Hafezi</last_name>
				<suffix></suffix>
				<first_name_fa></first_name_fa>
				<middle_name_fa></middle_name_fa>
				<last_name_fa></last_name_fa>
				<suffix_fa></suffix_fa>
				<email>ghiasis1401@gmail.com</email>
				<code>122462</code>
				<coreauthor>No</coreauthor>
				<affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.|Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematical Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.</affiliation>
				<affiliation_fa></affiliation_fa>
				 </author><author>
				<first_name>Habib Allah</first_name>
				<middle_name></middle_name>
				<last_name>Esmaeili</last_name>
				<suffix></suffix>
				<first_name_fa></first_name_fa>
				<middle_name_fa></middle_name_fa>
				<last_name_fa></last_name_fa>
				<suffix_fa></suffix_fa>
				<email>habib.esmaily@gmail.com</email>
				<code>122463</code>
				<coreauthor>No</coreauthor>
				<affiliation>Department of Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.</affiliation>
				<affiliation_fa></affiliation_fa>
				 </author><author>
				<first_name>Maryam</first_name>
				<middle_name></middle_name>
				<last_name>Salari</last_name>
				<suffix></suffix>
				<first_name_fa></first_name_fa>
				<middle_name_fa></middle_name_fa>
				<last_name_fa></last_name_fa>
				<suffix_fa></suffix_fa>
				<email>salarimr@mums.ac.ir</email>
				<code>122464</code>
				<coreauthor>No</coreauthor>
				<affiliation>Department of Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.</affiliation>
				<affiliation_fa></affiliation_fa>
				 </author></author_list>
				</article>
			</articleset>
			</journal>