Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Medicine

Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Medicine

Diabetes‎, ‎Hypertension‎, ‎Obesity‎, ‎and Age as Predictors of Severe COVID-19‎: ‎A Mathematical Modeling Study

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Atena Ghasemabadi 1
Somayeh Ghiasi Hafezi 2, 3
Habib Allah Esmaeili 4
Maryam Salari 4
1 Esfarayen University of Technology, Esfarayen, North Khorasan, Iran.
2 Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
3 Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematical Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
4 Department of Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
10.22038/jctm.2026.95622.1529
Abstract
Objective: To analyze an epidemiological model of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and identify patient characteristics associated with disease severity‎.
‎Materials and Methods: An extended SIR-based compartmental model was developed‎, ‎incorporating asymptomatic/symptomatic classes‎, ‎hospitalization‎, ‎ intensive care unit (ICU) admission‎, ‎mortality‎, ‎reinfection‎, ‎and environmental transmission‎. ‎The basic reproduction number ‎ ) was derived‎, ‎and stability analysis was performed using Routh-Hurwitz and Castillo-Chavez criteria‎. ‎Numerical simulations were conducted using MATLAB with data from Mashhad University of Medical Sciences‎.
Results: The disease-free equilibrium is stable when ‎ <1‎. ‎Clinical findings show‎: ‎diabetic patients are twice as likely to develop severe symptoms; hypertensive patients have a 3.5-fold higher risk (20% mortality vs‎. ‎0.7%); men have seven-fold higher mortality than women; older adults (>40 years) show increased severity; and obese patients (BMI ≥30) have worse outcomes‎.
Conclusion: is a critical parameter for disease-free equilibrium stability‎. ‎Comorbidities (diabetes‎, ‎hypertension‎, ‎obesity) and demographic factors (older age‎, ‎male gender) significantly increase the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes‎.
Keywords
COVID-19
Diabetes
Hypertension
Mathematical modeling
Stability analysis
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Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Medicine
Volume 14, Issue 2
Spring 2026
Pages 1709-1723